Predicting Crude Oil Future Price Using Traditional and Artificial Intelligence-Based Model: Comparative Analysis

Crude oil is an imperative energy source for the global economy. The future value of crude oil is challenging to anticipate due to its nonstationarity in nature. The focus of this research is to appraise the explosive behavior of crude oil during 2007-2022, including the most recent influential crisis COVID-19 pandemic, to forecast its prices. The crude oil price forecasts by the traditional econometric ARIMA model were compared with modern Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based Long Short-Term Memory Networks (ALSTM). Root mean square error (RMSE) and mean average percent error (MAPE) values have been used to evaluate the accuracy of such approaches. The results showed that the ALSTM model performs better than the traditional econometric ARIMA forecast model while predicting crude oil opening price on the next working day. Crude oil investors can effectively use this as an intraday trading model and more accurately predict the next working day opening price.

Real Time Mask Detection using Convolutional Neural Network

With the advent of Convolutional Neural Networks, the field of image classification has seen tremendous growth, with various previously impossible applications now being pursued. One such application is face mask detection, which is an important problem to solve, considering recent pandemic. The novelty of this work is the training of YOLO (You Only Look Once) framework for custom object detection, which in this case is face mask, based on some empirical rules for fine-tuning the performance. Also, image classification is proposed to be combined with tracker, in order to implement real world access grant system based on compliance shown by mask wearer. © 2022 IEEE.

Work-Stress Content Analysis Using Social Media Data

Since its occurrence in December 2019, COVID-19 has adversely affected both the personal and professional lives of people across the world. The widespread continuance of the pandemic has increased feelings of stress among people. Focusing on content analysis of data collected from Twitter, a social media platform, the current article aims at identifying and analyzing job-related stress among the masses with a focus on two primary terms related to stress among working people—employment and unemployment. A total of 32,237 tweets were downloaded from locations of four major cities of India, namely, Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai based on the keywords used for the study. Content analysis using R was employed as the technique to study the correlation and association of terms to find linkages between feelings/sentiments shared by the masses. Two clusters (Speculative and Misfit-Originators) of job-related stress causes were identified and coping strategies were suggested based on the reasons for stress in the different clusters. The findings suggest that increasing the perception of volition and allaying fears act as coping strategies for employees. © 2023 Fortune Institute of International Business.

Forecasting COVID-19 Cases Using n-SARS-CoV-2 Variants

This work proposes a novel Deep Learning-based model to forecast the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in four of the worst-hit states of India. Along with statewide restrictions and public holidays, a novel parameter is introduced for training the proposed model, which considers the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and the degree of their prevalence in each of the four states. Recurrent Neural Network-based Long-Short Term Memory is applied to the custom dataset, with the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error being 0.77% for the state of Maharashtra. SHapley Additive exPlanations values are used to examine the significance of the various parameters. The proposed model can be applied to other countries and can include newer variants of the novel coronavirus discovered in the future. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Isolated tracheobronchial mucormycosis: Report of a case and systematic review of literature

Background: Isolated tracheobronchial mucormycosis (ITBM) is an uncommonly reported entity. Herein, we report a case of ITBM following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and perform a systematic review of the literature. Case description and systematic review: A 45-year-old gentleman with poorly controlled diabetes mellitus presented with cough, streaky haemoptysis, and hoarseness of voice 2 weeks after mild COVID-19 illness. Computed tomography and flexible bronchoscopy suggested the presence of a tracheal mass, which was spontaneously expectorated. Histopathological examination of the mass confirmed invasive ITBM. The patient had complete clinical and radiological resolution with glycaemic control, posaconazole, and inhaled amphotericin B (8 weeks). Our systematic review of the literature identified 25 additional cases of isolated airway invasive mucormycosis. The median age of the 26 subjects (58.3% men) was 46 years. Diabetes mellitus (79.2%) was the most common risk factor. Uncommon conditions such as anastomosis site mucormycosis (in two lung transplant recipients), post-viral illness (post-COVID-19 [n = 3], and influenza [n = 1]), and post-intubation mucormycosis (n = 1) were noted in a few. Three patients died before treatment initiation. Systemic antifungals were used in most patients (commonly amphotericin B). Inhalation (5/26;19.2%) or bronchoscopic instillation (1/26;3.8%) of amphotericin B and surgery (6/26;23.1%) were performed in some patients. The case-fatality rate was 50%, primarily attributed to massive haemoptysis. Conclusion: Isolated tracheobronchial mucormycosis is a rare disease. Bronchoscopy helps in early diagnosis. Management with antifungals and control of risk factors is required since surgery may not be feasible. © 2022 Wiley-VCH GmbH.

Assessment Of Prevalence And Severity Of Digital Eye Strain Amongst Children Using Online Learning During Covid-19

Background- The pandemic affected the education of the children and thus online classes were initiated using digital devices, which resulted in excessive use of digital devices. The present study was therefore conducted at a tertiary care center to determine the burden and severity of Digital strain syndrome among children attending online classes during the pandemic. Methodology- This study was conducted as an online survey-based cross-sectional study on children studying in higher secondary school belonging to the age group of 12 to 16 years attending online classes in Bhopal India. during the pandemic. Using a standard questionnaire, the prevalence and severity of DES were assessed. Results- The mean age of children was 15.82+/-3.93 years. DES was present in 139 (53.9%) children. The most common symptom was headache followed by itching in the eyes. The majority of children had mild DES (37.2%), whereas 13.2% and 3.5% of children had moderate and severe DES respectively. Conclusions- We reported a much higher prevalence of DES during the COVID era, which was due to an increase in the time spent on digital devices for online classes. As the education of children is essential, it should be a continuous process. A concentrated effort must be done to increase awareness regarding DES due to digital device usage and e-learning technologies Copyright © 2023 Ubiquity Press. All rights reserved.

Covid and Kidney-Oea Friend or Foe

BACKGROUND: Covid-19 has been associated with worsened prognosis in patients with kidney involvement. The incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in Coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) patients ranges from 0.5% to 35%. AIM OF THE STUDY: We evaluated the prevalence severity risk factors and prognosis in patients with COVID-19 having AKI or CKD. METHOD(S): We conducted a retrospective analysis of 70 patients with Covid-19 presenting to nephrology department. Outcome of patients with CKD stage 1-2 was compared with that of patients with AKI kidney transplant and CKD stage G3a-G5D. RESULT(S): In this study, 15 (21.4%) patients had CKD stage G1-2, 18 (25.71%) had CKD stage G3a-5c and 11 (15.7%) had CKD stage G5d. Eight patients (11.4%) were with functioning renal allograft (CKD-T). Four (5.71%) developed AKI and 14 patients (20%) had acute on CKD. Overall;in-hospital mortality was 27.14% (n = 19). Of these, 3 patients (15.78%) had CKD stage G1-G2, 7 (36.84%) had CKD stage G3a-5c, 3 had CKD G5D, 2 (10.55%) had acute on CKD, one had AKI and 3 patients had a functioning kidney allograft. Baseline & nadir serum creatinine & eGFR of CKD stage 1-2, CKD Stage 3a-5c and stage CKD-t was 0.87 (eGFR 82), 7.34 (eGFR 11.61), 3.24 (eGFR-24.86);and 0.74 (eGFR 93.55), 5.37 (eGFR 16.55) and 1.85 (eGFR 42.28) respectively. CONCLUSION(S): A rather low prevalence of AKI in our Covid-19 patients, lower mortality in acute on CKD patients & improvement in eGFR in CKD & transplant patient in our study suggest that coronavirus has minimal, if any direct toxic effect on kidney. But presence of renal failure worsens the outcome of Covid-19 disease.

Financing vaccine equity: funding for day-zero of the next pandemic

A lack of timely financing for purchases of vaccines and other health products impeded the global response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Based on analysis of contract signature and delivery dates in Covid-19 vaccine advance purchase agreements, this paper finds that 60-75 per cent of the delay in vaccine deliveries to low- and middle-income countries is attributable to their signing purchase agreements later than high-income countries, which placed them further behind in the delivery line. A pandemic Advance Commitment Facility with access to a credit line on day-zero of the next pandemic could allow low- and middle-income countries to secure orders earlier, ensuring a much faster and equitable global response than during Covid-19. The paper outlines four options for a financier to absorb some or all of the risk associated with the credit line and discusses how the credit would complement other proposals to strengthen the financing architecture for pandemic preparedness, prevention, and response.

Seven finance and trade lessons from Covid-19 for future pandemics

Pandemics and epidemics pose systemic risks to lives, societies, and to global economic security-and their frequency is expected to increase as rising trade and increased human interaction with animals leads to the emergence of new diseases. The Covid-19 pandemic teaches us that we can and must be better prepared, with scope for much greater global coordination to address the financing, supply-chain, and trade barriers that amplified the pandemic's economic costs and contributed to the emergence of new variants. This paper draws seven early lessons from the Covid-19 pandemic that could inform future policy priorities and help shape a better global response to future crises.

INNOVATION MANAGEMENT AS A DYNAMIC CAPABILITY FOR A VOLATILE, UNCERTAIN, COMPLEX AND AMBIGUOUS WORLD

During the global pandemic, organisations across the world struggled as many of them were not able to respond effectively to the disruptive conditions. This period of economic and social standstill showed that our ingrained approach to innovation management was flawed. A mindset to innovate using a structured linear approach is premised on stable operating conditions within firms. This approach to innovation by firms fell short when subjected to extreme volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous operating conditions. To learn from this experience we explore approaches that helped organisations innovate during the global pandemic. Using the latest literature on innovation under volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) conditions, we explore the capabilities that have allowed organisations to continue and accelerate innovation during turbulent times. This research explores how organisations can use innovation management as a dynamic capability to help them create sustained value during times of disruption. To understand what capabilities helped leaders navigate the global pandemic we look at learnings from examples from both industry and government. These cases include snippets from supply chain logistics, workplaces and public services that demonstrated their ability to acquire unique management capabilities and qualities spanning leadership, structure and communications. Through observation of five specific case studies we propose a framework to succeed in managing innovation in the face of environmental, digital and global disruption. We learn from this research that organisations must embrace new capabilities and embed structural readiness within their organisations for combating VUCA conditions. While we hopefully have seen the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, this research presents a way forward to enable and embed improved innovation management as a dynamic capability for individuals, businesses and nations to navigate turbulent times. © 2023 selection and editorial matter, Renu Agarwal, Eric Patterson, Sancheeta Pugalia and Roy Green;individual chapters, the contributors.

FRUGAL INNOVATION: A structured literature review of antecedents, enablers, implications and directions for future research

Frugal Innovation (FI), a growing field in innovation and management literature, is at the forefront of economic development and growth, more importantly for developing economies. Moreover, the volatile and uncertain times during COVID-19, and the ongoing crisis calls for FI echoed by environmental, social and economic needs across the globe, thus making researchers and practitioners realize the importance of FI. The primary aim of this chapter is to comprehend the extant literature, ascertain the knowledge gaps in the current literature and identify promising future research directions in FI. Through a detailed review of the antecedents, enablers, emerging areas of application and the impact on sustainable development, we propose a conceptual framework for FI in this chapter. Despite the vastness of this market, we argue that there is a huge potential of FI, which presents a prodigious opportunity in the underdeveloped markets to serve and identify fortunes at the bottom of the pyramid. This study links FI closely with concepts like reverse innovation, sustainability, circular economy, digital effectuation and offers insights for scaling up FI from developing to developed economies. © 2023 selection and editorial matter, Renu Agarwal, Eric Patterson, Sancheeta Pugalia and Roy Green;individual chapters, the contributors.

COVID-19 and Clotting: A Wave of Acute Limb Ischemia

Introduction: A surge in the number of patients with acute limb ischemia (ALI) was seen during the first and second waves of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. This has been ascribed to the hypercoagulable state seen in COVID infections. The aim of this study is to report our experience and outcomes of ALI associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Materials and Methods: It was a single-center observational retrospective study from a prospectively maintained database of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection presenting with ALI between July 2020 and December 2020 with 1-year follow-up. Results: Thirty-nine acutely ischemic limbs were treated in 32 patients including three upper limbs. The mean age of patients was 55.75 (range: 27-80). There were 23 (71.87%) males and 9 (28.12%) females. Majority of the limbs were in Class IIB of ALI, whereas 20.51% had irreversible ischemia. Of the 39 affected limbs in 32 patients, 22 limbs were revascularized, 9 had primary amputation, and 8 were managed conservatively with anticoagulation. The overall limb salvage was 26 out of 39 limbs (66.7%), whereas it was 81.8% for the limbs that had an intervention. The overall mortality was 9.4%. There was no further limb loss or mortality during 1-year follow-up. Interestingly, 15 patients did not have any symptoms suggestive of SARS-CoV-2 infection other than ALI. The severity of COVID infection did not correlate with the severity of ALI. Conclusion: COVID-19 infection can be associated with arterial thrombosis and ALI, which, if treated early with appropriate intervention, can result in a satisfactory limb salvage rate. Prophylactic anticoagulation in COVID-19-infected patients may not prevent arterial thrombosis, and the clinical severity of the COVID-19 infection is not a predictor of arterial thrombosis.

Mentoring Scheme for Medical Students Interested in a Career in Surgery

Aim: A career in Surgery requires dedication and commitment from medical School onwards. Having a mentor is proven to help facilitate career progression and improve self-confidence as well as providing supportive, non-biased, non-judgemental career advice. Mentors report increased job satisfaction and self-esteem when mentoring junior colleagues. Method(s): The senior author, along with The local medical school's Surgical society, launched a pilot scheme for medical students and volunteering consultant surgeons in April 2021. 46 students were recruited, and 28 consultant surgeon mentors. Mentees were then paired with mentors, with some mentors taking on multiple mentees. Result(s): Feedback forms were sent out 6 months later to establish perceptions on progress and any suggestions for improvement. We had a low return rate of The feedback forms with 19 returns from mentees, 13 of which had met their mentors. 8 forms were returned by mentors, 5 of whom had met their mentees. 82.35% of mentees who returned The form said The pilot scheme had either 'met or exceeded their expectations'. Conclusion(s): This pilot scheme was launched just as COVID-19 pandemic recovery work started, with Surgical specialities trying to clear The back log, which may be The reason of The meetings not taking place or The feedback forms not being completed. In The future, we hope to recruit Surgical trainees to help with The mentorship programme and by time constraining The programme, trying to ensure that all mentees get The benefit of limited number of mentors.

Managing panic buying-related instabilities in supply chains: A COVID-19 pandemic perspective

Global supply chains (SCs) have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic on several levels. For example, SCs suffered from panic buying-related instabilities and multiple disruptions of supply, demand, and capacity during the pandemic. This study developed an agent-based model (ABM) to predict the effects of panic buying-related instabilities in SCs and offered strategies to improve them. The ABM model includes a simulation and optimization model of a typical SC of an essential product manufacturer (i.e., toilet paper SC) for the analysis of scenarios and strategies to observe improvements in SCs. Among the four strategies identified, the findings suggest boosting production capacity to the maximum and ensuring optimal reorder points, order sizes, and trucks helped the essential product manufacturers reduce panic buying-related instabilities in their SCs. Copyright (C) 2022 The Authors.

Telehealth Can Improve Access to Fertility Care: Survey of Patients in a Low Income, County Hospital Infertility Clinic

Objective: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-2019) pandemic caused radical changes in health care delivery. The American Society for Reproductive Medicine (ASRM) during the COVID-19 pandemic recommended using telehealth to the greatest extent possible to continue evaluating and treating patients. And while generally well-received by patients and providers, there is limited literature on the use of telehealth in low-income, non-English-speaking patients who might have difficulty accessing technology and resources required for telehealth visits. The objective of this survey study was to analyze patient perspectives of telehealth amongst this underserved population seeking infertility care. Material(s) and Method(s): We performed a cross-sectional survey study by distributing an anonymous, web-based survey to patients who had at least one telehealth visit at the Los Angeles County Hospital Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility clinic between February-April, 2022. The survey included questions from the Telehealth Usability Questionnaire (TUQ), a validated tool that assesses the quality and usability of telehealth on a 5-point Likert scale (strongly disagree to strongly agree), and also gathered demographic data. The primary outcome was overall satisfaction using telehealth. Fisher's exact tests were used to compare groups, with a P value <0.05 considered statistically significant. Result(s): 140 patients were invited to participate in the study, and 98 completed the survey (70%). A majority of respondents were Hispanic (76%), and had an annual income of less than $40,000 (60%). Most respondents believed telehealth improved their access to healthcare (87%), thought telehealth visits were as good as in-person visits (66%), considered telehealth an acceptable way to receive care regarding infertility (76%), and were overall satisfied with their telehealth visit (95%). Only 12% of respondents had difficulty using the telehealth platform or communicating with their doctor, and these patients were more likely to speak Spanish as their primary language (P = 0.04). Conclusion(s): Even among minority and low-income patients, telehealth is an effective and satisfactory method to provide infertility counseling and treatment. Patient satisfaction can be further improved by improving usability by non-English speakers. Impact Statement: Telehealth can improve access to infertility care among minority and low-income patient populations with high rates of patient satisfaction. REFERENCES:: Parmanto B, Lewis AN Jr, Graham KM, Bertolet MH. Development of the Telehealth Usability Questionnaire (TUQ). Int J Telerehabil. 2016;8(1):3-10. Published 2016 Jul 1. Copyright © 2022

Mathematical model and interpretation of crowding effects on SARS-CoV-2 using Atangana-Baleanu fractional operator

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, which infects a normal person through droplets of infected person and has its route via mouth, eyes, nose, or hands is caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Coronavirus causes severe infections that include acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute lung injury, and various others. SARS-CoV-2 infection activates innate and adaptive immune responses, but uncontrolled, inflammatory, and impaired responses lead to harmful tissue damage. Crowding is the major factor involved in the increasing trend in COVID-19 cases. Modeling of this effect will help in predicting the effects of overcrowding on the overall population. In this chapter, we define a model depicting the crowding effects of SARS-CoV-2 virus and examine the existence and uniqueness of the results involving Atangana-Baleanu fractional operator using a fixed-point method. We then interpret the model explaining its significance. © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Isolated tracheobronchial mucormycosis: report of a case and systematic review of literature

BACKGROUND: Isolated tracheobronchial mucormycosis (ITBM) is an uncommonly reported entity. Herein, we report a case of ITBM following coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and perform a systematic review of the literature. CASE DESCRIPTION AND SYSTEMATIC REVIEW: A 45-year-old gentleman with poorly controlled diabetes mellitus presented with cough, streaky hemoptysis, and hoarseness of voice two weeks after mild COVID-19 illness. Computed tomography and flexible bronchoscopy suggested the presence of a tracheal mass, which was spontaneously expectorated. Histopathological examination of the mass confirmed invasive ITBM. The patient had complete clinical and radiological resolution with glycemic control, posaconazole, and inhaled amphotericin B (eight weeks). Our systematic review of the literature identified 25 additional cases of isolated airway invasive mucormycosis. The median age of the 26 subjects (58.3% men) was 46 years. Diabetes mellitus (79.2%) was the most common risk factor. Uncommon conditions such as anastomosis site mucormycosis (in 2 lung transplant recipients), post-viral illness (post-COVID-19 [n=3], and influenza [n=1]), and post-intubation mucormycosis (n=1) were noted in a few. Three patients died before treatment initiation. Systemic antifungals were used in most patients (commonly amphotericin B). Inhalation (5/26;19.2%) or bronchoscopic instillation (1/26;3.8%) of amphotericin B and surgery (6/26;23.1%) were performed in some patients. The case-fatality rate was 50%, primarily attributed to massive hemoptysis. CONCLUSION: Isolated tracheobronchial mucormycosis is a rare disease. Bronchoscopy helps in early diagnosis. Management with antifungals and control of risk factors is required since surgery may not be feasible.

Patient perspectives on nipple-areola complex micropigmentation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Micropigmentation is a well-recognised option for nipple-areola complex reconstruction, as part of the breast reconstruction pathway for patients following mastectomy. As a part of delayed breast reconstruction, this treatment was put on hold during the COVID-19 pandemic. AIMS: To assess the views of patients regarding micropigmentation in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and whether their attitudes to seeking out this part of the reconstructive journey had been altered. METHODS: A questionnaire undertaken with 53 patients between August & September 2020 attending the Micropigmentation clinic. FINDINGS: 81.1% of patients reported COVID-19 had not impacted their decision, with a similar proportion happy to proceed with the treatment at the time of questioning. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of nipple-areola complex to our patients' reconstructive journey.